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3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37640439

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic challenged palliative care (PC) services globally. We studied the ways healthcare professionals (HCPs) working in faith-based hospitals (FBHs) experienced and adapted care through the pandemic, and how this impacted patients with PC needs. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with HCPs from FBHs serving rural and urban population across India. Thematic analysis was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 10 in-depth interviews were conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, first wave (4), second wave (4) and between them (2). HCPs described fear and stigma in the community early in the pandemic. Migrant workers struggled, many local health services closed and cancer care was severely affected. Access and availability of healthcare services was better during the second wave. During both waves, FBHs provided care for non-COVID patients, earning community appreciation. For HCPs, the first wave entailed preparation and training; the second wave was frightening with scarcity of hospital beds, oxygen and many deaths. Eight of the 10 FBHs provided COVID-19 care. PC teams adapted services providing teleconsultations, triaging home visits, delivering medications, food at home, doing online teaching for adolescents, raising funds. Strengths of FBHs were dedicated teamwork, staff care, quick response and adaptations to community needs, building on established community relationship. CONCLUSION: FBHs remained open and continued providing consistent, good quality, person-centred care during the pandemic. Challenges were overcome innovatively using novel approaches, often achieving good outcomes despite limited resources. By defining and redefining quality using a PC lens, FBHs strengthened patient care services.

5.
Palliat Med ; 36(3): 478-488, 2022 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35354412

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Unscheduled care is used increasingly during the last year of life by people known to have significant palliative care needs. AIM: To document the frequency and patterns of use of unscheduled healthcare by people in their last year of life and understand the experiences and perspectives of patients, families and professionals about accessing unscheduled care out-of-hours. DESIGN: A mixed methods, multi-stage study integrating a retrospective cohort analysis of unscheduled healthcare service use in the last year of life for all people dying in Scotland in 2016 with qualitative data from three regions involving service users, bereaved carers and general practitioners. SETTING: Three contrasting Scottish Health Board regions and national datasets for the whole of Scotland. RESULTS: People who died in Scotland in 2016 (n = 56,407) had 472,360 unscheduled contacts with one of five services: telephone advice, primary care, ambulance service, emergency department and emergency hospital admission. These formed 206,841 individual continuous unscheduled care pathways: 65% starting out-of-hours. When accessing healthcare out-of-hours, patients and carers prioritised safety and a timely response. Their choice of which service to contact was informed by perceptions and previous experiences of potential delays and whether the outcome might be hospital admission. Professionals found it difficult to practice palliative care in a crisis unless the patient had previously been identified. CONCLUSION: Strengthening unscheduled care in the community, together with patient and public information about how to access these services could prevent hospital admissions of low benefit and enhance community support for people living with advanced illness.


Assuntos
Plantão Médico , Cuidados Paliativos , Assistência Terminal , Cuidadores , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Escócia
7.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34518283

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the capacity of European countries to integrate palliative care (PC) into their health systems through PC service provision for patients of all ages, with different care needs and diseases, in various settings and by a range of providers. METHODS: Secondary analysis of survey data from 51 countries with 22 indicators explored the integration of available PC resources for children, for patients of all ages, at the primary care level, for oncology and cardiac patients, and in long-term care facilities. We also measured volunteer participation. Results were quantified, converted into weighted subscores by area and combined into a single 'Integration Capacity Score (ICS)' for each country. RESULTS: Thirty-eight countries reported 543 specialised paediatric PC services. One-third of all surveyed countries reported 20% or more of patients with PC needs at the primary care level. Twenty-four countries have a total of 155 designated centres that integrate oncology and PC. Eight countries were pioneering cardiology services that integrate PC. Eight reported a volunteer workforce of over 1000 and 12 had policies regulating PC provision and interventions in long-term care facilities. Across all indicators, 39 countries (76%) score from low to very low integration capacity, 8 (16%) score at an intermediate level, and 4 (8%; the Netherlands, UK, Germany and Switzerland) report a high-level integration of PC into their health systems. CONCLUSION: Variable progress according to these indicators shows that most European countries are still in the process of integrating PC into their health systems.

8.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34400402

RESUMO

In palliative care, as in many areas of medicine, there is a considerable amount of research conducted that makes sound recommendations but does not result consistently in improved care. For instance, though palliative care has been shown to benefit all people with a life-threatening illness, its main reach continues to be for those with cancer. Drawing on relational models of research use, we set out to engage policy-makers, educators, clinicians, commissioners and service providers in a knowledge exchange process to identify implications of research for Scottish palliative care priorities. First, we mapped the existing palliative care research evidence in Scotland. We then organised evidence review meetings and a wider stakeholder event where research producers and users came together to coproduce implications of the evidence for policy, education and practice. We used questionnaires and key stakeholder feedback meetings to explore impacts of this process on research uptake and use immediately after the events and over time. In this paper, we reflect on this knowledge exchange process and the broader context in which it was set. We found that participation fostered relationships and led to a rich and enthusiastic exploration of research evidence from multiple perspectives. Potential impacts relating to earlier identification for palliative care, education and need-based commissioning ensued. We make suggestions to guide replication.

10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33863804

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Faith-based organisations (FBOs) in India provide health services particularly to marginalised communities. We studied their preparedness and delivery of palliative care during COVID-19 as part of a mixed-method study. We present the results of an online questionnaire. METHODS: All FBOs providing palliative care in India were invited to complete an online questionnaire. Descriptive analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Response rate was 46/64 (72%); 44 provided palliative care; 30/44 (68%) were in rural or semiurban areas with 10-2700 beds. Fifty-two per cent (23/44) had dedicated palliative care teams and 30/44 (68%) provided it as part of general services; 17/44 (39%) provided both. 29/44 (66%) provided palliative care for cancer patients; 17/44 (34%) reported that this was more than half their workload.The pandemic led to reduced clinical work: hospital 36/44 (82%) and community 40/44 (91%); with reduction in hospital income for 41/44 (93%). 18/44 (44%) were designated government COVID-19 centres; 11/40 (32%) had admitted between 1 and 2230 COVID-19 patients.COVID-19 brought challenges: 14/44 (32%) lacked personal protective equipment; 21/44 (48%) had reduced hospital supplies and 19/44 (43%) lacked key medications including morphine. 29/44 (66%) reported reduction in palliative care work; 7/44 (16%) had stopped altogether. Twenty-three per cent (10/44) reported redeployment of palliative care teams to other work. For those providing, palliative care 32/37 (86%) was principally for non-COVID patients; 13/37 (35%) cared for COVID-19 patients. Service adaptations included: teleconsultation, triaged home visits, medication delivery at home and food supply. CONCLUSIONS: FBOs in India providing palliative care had continued to do so despite multiple challenges. Services were adapted to enable ongoing patient care. Further research is exploring the effects of COVID-19 in greater depth.

11.
Fam Pract ; 38(5): 637-643, 2021 09 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33871548

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Due to the uncertain disease trajectory and variable rate of progression in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), health care professionals (HCPs) are challenged in explaining what the future may hold for patients compared to those with lung cancer (LC). Support and communication of timely information can significantly improve health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to identify factors that impact communication and support and recommend ways to improve patients' understanding of living with life-threatening illness. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews with patients with LC (n = 22) and advanced COPD (n = 18), their informal carers (21 LC and 18 COPD) and HCPs (n = 51). Patients were recruited from primary and secondary care in the East of England, UK, during 2010-12. RESULTS: Directness and clarity characterized communication in LC, whereas uncertainty and limited explanations predominated in COPD. Discussions on how the disease might impact on decisions and preferences to be made in the future were less common in COPD. Information for LC patients was mainly from hospital clinicians and any information for COPD patients mainly from primary care clinicians. CONCLUSIONS: The experience of COPD patients could be improved by professionals soon after diagnosis explaining to them the typical pattern of decline in COPD, highlighting the inherent uncertainties about when exacerbations and death may occur. This conversation should lead to planning for the different challenges that the patient and informal carer recognize as most important to them. This contrasts with the 'breaking bad news' conversation that oncologists are highly trained to deliver.


People living with lung cancer (LC) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have poor health-related quality of life. However, more people with LC receive holistic palliative care (which involves supportive advance care planning) than those with COPD. We interviewed patients with LC or COPD, their informal carers (family/friends who support them) and health care professionals (HCPs) about their experiences and our findings confirmed this: HCPs said the uncertainty of COPD prognosis made starting advance care planning conversations challenging. The level of uncertainty and unpredictability is very different in LC and COPD: the cancer diagnosis is made at a single point in time with mortality immediately on the agenda, while COPD is a chronic condition that develops over many years. We urge clinicians to share this uncertainty with patients and to try to explain and communicate it sooner than later. These conversations should also continue as a recognized part of ongoing care so that COPD patients can benefit from understanding the uncertainties they are dealing and living with. LC and COPD should be approached differently to meet patients' condition-specific needs in order that the existing disparity in holistic care can be remedied.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Comunicação , Humanos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/terapia , Cuidados Paliativos , Incerteza
12.
BMJ Open ; 11(4): e042645, 2021 04 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33883149

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To assess the degree of frailty in older people with different advanced diseases and its relationship with end-of-life illness trajectories and survival. METHODS: Prospective, observational study, including all patients admitted to the Acute Geriatric Unit of the University Hospital of Vic (Spain) during 12 consecutive months (2014-2015), followed for up to 2 years. Participants were identified as end-of-life people (EOLp) using the NECPAL (NECesidades PALiativas, palliative care needs) tool and were classified according to their dominant illness trajectory. The Frail-VIG index (Valoración Integral Geriátrica, Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment) was used to quantify frailty degree, to calculate the relationship between frailty and mortality (Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves), and to assess the combined effect of frailty degree and illness trajectories on survival (Cox proportional hazards model). Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier estimator with participants classified into four groups (ie, no frailty, mild frailty, moderate frailty and advanced frailty) and were compared using the log-rank test. RESULTS: Of the 590 persons with a mean (SD) age of 86.4 (5.6) years recruited, 260 (44.1%) were identified as EOLp, distributed into cancer (n=31, 11.9%), organ failure (n=79, 30.4%), dementia (n=86, 33.1%) and multimorbidity (n=64, 24.6%) trajectories. All 260 EOLp had some degree of frailty, mostly advanced frailty (n=184, 70.8%), regardless of the illness trajectory, and 220 (84.6%) died within 2 years. The area under the ROC curve (95% CI) after 2 years of follow-up for EOLp was 0.87 (0.84 to 0.92) with different patterns of survival decline in the different end-of-life trajectories (p<0.0001). Cox regression analyses showed that each additional deficit of the Frail-VIG index increased the risk of death by 61.5%, 30.1%, 29.6% and 12.9% in people with dementia, organ failure, multimorbidity and cancer, respectively (p<0.01 for all the coefficients). CONCLUSIONS: All older people towards the end-of-life in this study were frail, mostly with advanced frailty. The degree of frailty is related to survival across the different illness trajectories despite the differing survival patterns among trajectories. Frailty indexes may be useful to assess end-of-life older people, regardless of their trajectory.


Assuntos
Fragilidade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Morte , Idoso Fragilizado , Fragilidade/epidemiologia , Avaliação Geriátrica , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Espanha/epidemiologia
13.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e041317, 2021 02 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33536318

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery. DESIGN: We estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need. SETTING: Scotland, population of 5.4 million. PARTICIPANTS: All decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Estimates of past and future palliative care need in Scotland from 2007 up to 2040. Multimorbidity was operationalised as two or more registered causes of death from different disease groups (cancer, organ failure, dementia, other). Consultation and survey data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: We project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity. The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040. To address increased need and complexity, experts prioritised sustained investment in a national digital platform, roll-out of integrated electronic health and social care records; and approaches that remain person-centred. CONCLUSIONS: By 2040 more people in Scotland are projected to die with palliative care needs, and the complexity of need will increase markedly. Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups. We need sustained investment in secure, accessible, integrated and person-centred health and social care digital systems, to improve care coordination and optimise palliative care for people across care settings.


Assuntos
Doença Crônica/terapia , Atenção à Saúde/métodos , Neoplasias/terapia , Cuidados Paliativos/tendências , Previsões , Humanos , Cuidados Paliativos/estatística & dados numéricos , Escócia/epidemiologia
14.
BMC Palliat Care ; 20(1): 18, 2021 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33451311

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Specialist palliative care (SPC) providers tend to use the term 'complex' to refer to the needs of patients who require SPC. However, little is known about complex needs on first referral to a SPC service. We examined which needs are present and sought the perspectives of healthcare professionals on the complexity of need on referral to a hospice service. METHODS: Multi-site sequential explanatory mixed method study consisting of a case-note review and focus groups with healthcare professionals in four UK hospices. RESULTS: Documentation relating to 239 new patient referrals to hospice was reviewed; and focus groups involving 22 healthcare professionals conducted. Most patients had two or more needs documented on referral (96%); and needs were recorded across two or more domains for 62%. Physical needs were recorded for 91% of patients; psychological needs were recorded for 59%. Spiritual needs were rarely documented. Referral forms were considered limited for capturing complex needs. Referrals were perceived to be influenced by the experience and confidence of the referrer and the local resource available to meet palliative care needs directly. CONCLUSIONS: Complexity was hard to detail or to objectively define on referral documentation alone. It appeared to be a term used to describe patients whom primary or secondary care providers felt needed SPC knowledge or support to meet their needs. Hospices need to provide greater clarity regarding who should be referred, when and for what purpose. Education and training in palliative care for primary care nurses and doctors and hospital clinicians could reduce the need for referral and help ensure that hospices are available to those most in need of SPC input.


Assuntos
Cuidados Paliativos na Terminalidade da Vida , Enfermagem de Cuidados Paliativos na Terminalidade da Vida , Hospitais para Doentes Terminais , Humanos , Cuidados Paliativos , Encaminhamento e Consulta
16.
BMJ Open ; 10(11): e041888, 2020 11 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33234657

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To analyse patterns of use and costs of unscheduled National Health Service (NHS) services for people in the last year of life. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of national datasets with application of standard UK costings. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All people who died in Scotland in 2016 aged 18 or older (N=56 407). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency of use of the five unscheduled NHS services in the last 12 months of life by underlying cause of death, patient demographics, Continuous Unscheduled Pathways (CUPs) followed by patients during each care episode, total NHS and per-patient costs. RESULTS: 53 509 patients (94.9%) had at least one contact with an unscheduled care service during their last year of life (472 360 contacts), with 34.2% in the last month of life. By linking patient contacts during each episode of care, we identified 206 841 CUPs, with 133 980 (64.8%) starting out-of-hours. People with cancer were more likely to contact the NHS telephone advice line (63%) (χ2 (4)=1004, p<0.001) or primary care out-of-hours (62%) (χ2 (4)=1924,p<0.001) and have hospital admissions (88%) (χ2 (4)=2644, p<0.001). People with organ failure (79%) contacted the ambulance service most frequently (χ2 (4)=584, p<0.001). Demographic factors associated with more unscheduled care were older age, social deprivation, living in own home and dying of cancer. People dying with organ failure formed the largest group in the cohort and had the highest NHS costs as a group. The cost of providing services in the community was estimated at 3.9% of total unscheduled care costs despite handling most out-of-hours calls. CONCLUSIONS: Over 90% of people used NHS unscheduled care in their last year of life. Different underlying causes of death and demographic factors impacted on initial access and subsequent pathways of care. Managing more unscheduled care episodes in the community has the potential to reduce hospital admissions and overall costs.


Assuntos
Plantão Médico , Medicina Estatal , Assistência Terminal , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Escócia , Adulto Jovem
17.
BMC Geriatr ; 20(1): 102, 2020 03 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32164580

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction after myocardial infarction is often complex in older patients. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) model includes clinical parameters and age, but not frailty. We hypothesised that frailty would enhance the prognostic properties of GRACE. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational cohort study in two independent cardiology units: the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, UK (primary cohort) and the South Yorkshire Cardiothoracic Centre, Sheffield, UK (external validation). The study sample included 198 patients ≥65 years old hospitalised with type 1 myocardial infarction (primary cohort) and 96 patients ≥65 years old undergoing cardiac catheterisation for myocardial infarction (external validation). Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). The GRACE 2.0 estimated risk of 12-month mortality, Charlson comorbidity index and Karnofsky disability scale were also determined for each patient. RESULTS: Forty (20%) patients were frail (CFS ≥5). These individuals had greater comorbidity, functional impairment and a higher risk of death at 12 months (49% vs. 9% in non-frail patients, p < 0.001). The hazard of 12-month all-cause mortality nearly doubled per point increase in CFS after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidity (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.44, p < 0.001). The CFS had good discrimination for mortality by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (Area Under the Curve [AUC] 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.89) and enhanced the GRACE estimate (AUC 0.86 vs. 0.80 without CFS, p = 0.04). At existing GRACE thresholds, the CFS resulted in a Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) of 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.60, p < 0.001), largely through reductions in risk estimates amongst non-frail patients. Similar findings were observed in the external validation cohort (NRI 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.69, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The GRACE score overestimated mortality risk after myocardial infarction in these cohorts of older patients. The CFS is a simple guided frailty tool that may enhance prediction in this setting. These findings merit evaluation in larger cohorts of unselected patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov; NCT02302014 (November 26th 2014, retrospectively registered).


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/epidemiologia , Fragilidade/diagnóstico , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/complicações , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antagonistas de Receptores de Angiotensina , Inibidores da Enzima Conversora de Angiotensina/uso terapêutico , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Infarto do Miocárdio/diagnóstico , Infarto do Miocárdio/tratamento farmacológico , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Sistema de Registros , Fatores de Risco
18.
Age Ageing ; 49(3): 468-480, 2020 04 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32091569

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Care home residents are increasingly frail with complex health and social care needs. Their transfer to hospital at the end-of-life can be associated with unwanted interventions and distress. However, hospitals do enable provision of care that some residents wish to receive. We aimed to explore the factors that influence hospital admission of care home residents who then died in hospital. METHODS: This study combined in-depth case note review of care home residents dying in two Scottish teaching hospitals during a 6-month period and semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 26 care home staff and two relatives. RESULTS: During the 6-month period, 109 care home residents died in hospital. Most admissions occurred out-of-hours (69%) and most were due to a sudden event or acute change in clinical condition (72%). Length of stay in hospital before death was short, with 42% of deaths occurring within 3 days. Anticipatory Care Planning (ACP) regarding hospital admission was documented in 44%.Care home staff wanted to care for residents who were dying; however, uncertain trajectories of decline, acute events, challenges of ACP, relationship with family and lack of external support impeded this. CONCLUSIONS: Managing acute changes on the background of uncertain trajectories is challenging in care homes. Enhanced support is required to improve and embed ACP in care homes and to provide rapid, 24 hours-a-day support to manage difficult symptoms and acute changes.


Assuntos
Casas de Saúde , Assistência Terminal , Hospitalização , Hospitais , Humanos
19.
Br J Gen Pract ; 70(690): e20-e28, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31848198

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Electronic care coordination systems, known as the Key Information Summary (KIS) in Scotland, enable the creation of shared electronic records available across healthcare settings. A KIS provides clinicians with essential information to guide decision making for people likely to need emergency or out-of-hours care. AIM: To estimate the proportion of people with an advanced progressive illness with a KIS by the time of death, to examine when planning information is documented, and suggest improvements for electronic care coordination systems. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a mixed-methods study involving 18 diverse general practices in Scotland. METHOD: Retrospective review of medical records of patients who died in 2017, and semi-structured interviews with healthcare professionals were conducted. RESULTS: Data on 1304 decedents were collected. Of those with an advanced progressive illness (79%, n = 1034), 69% (n = 712) had a KIS. These were started a median of 45 weeks before death. People with cancer were most likely to have a KIS (80%, n = 288), and those with organ failure least likely (47%, n = 125). Overall, 68% (n = 482) of KIS included resuscitation status and 55% (n = 390) preferred place of care. People with a KIS were more likely to die in the community compared to those without one (61% versus 30%). Most KIS were considered useful/highly useful. Up-to-date free-text information within the KIS was valued highly. CONCLUSION: In Scotland, most people with an advanced progressive illness have an electronic care coordination record by the time of death. This is an achievement. To improve further, better informal carer information, regular updating, and a focus on generating a KIS for people with organ failure is warranted.


Assuntos
Plantão Médico/organização & administração , Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/organização & administração , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/organização & administração , Cuidados Paliativos/organização & administração , Atenção Primária à Saúde/organização & administração , Doente Terminal , Tomada de Decisões , Humanos , Disseminação de Informação , Satisfação do Paciente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Escócia/epidemiologia
20.
BMC Palliat Care ; 18(1): 112, 2019 Dec 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31829177

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation. AIMS: To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends. METHODS: Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004-2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017-2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections. RESULTS: Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8-23.4% and 14.5-18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0-50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding. CONCLUSION: To sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Morte , Assistência Terminal/tendências , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Masculino , Escócia , Assistência Terminal/métodos
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